Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 12:15 PM · Nationals Park
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Washington Nationals
Alternative: Under 3.5 ponches de Janson Junk
Model confidence
64.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.8
- Reference line
- 9.0
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.6
- First 5 line
- 5.0
- Weather
- Partly Cloudy
- Temperature
- 80°F
- Wind
- 10 mph, Out To RF
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Washington Nationals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.59).
Offensive production
Washington Nationals enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Partly Cloudy, wind 10 mph, Out To RF.
Availability
Received injury reports
Miami Marlins
- • Adam Mazur: Injured 60-Day
- • Andrew Nardi: Injured 60-Day
- • Anthony Bender: Injured 15-Day
- • Max Meyer: Injured 15-Day
- • Pete Fairbanks: Injured 15-Day
Washington Nationals
- • Connelly Early: Injured 60-Day
- • DJ Herz: Injured 60-Day
- • Drew Millas: Injured 10-Day
- • James Wood: Injured 10-Day
- • Josiah Gray: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Miami Marlins
- 1Heriberto HernándezLF
- 2Otto LopezSS
- 3Agustín RamírezDH
- 4Esteury RuizRF
- 5Xavier Edwards2B
- 6Javier Sanoja3B
- 7Leo Jiménez1B
- 8Jakob MarseeCF
- 9Brian NavarretoC
Washington Nationals
- 1CJ Abrams2B
- 2Abimelec OrtizDH
- 3Andrés Chaparro1B
- 4Daylen LileLF
- 5Dylan CrewsRF
- 6Jorbit Vivas3B
- 7Harry FordC
- 8Jacob YoungCF
- 9Nasim NuñezSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model