Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 6:45 PM · Nationals Park
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Colorado Rockies
Alternative: Washington Nationals Moneyline
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 10.2
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 5.4
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Colorado Rockies has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (5.75).
Offensive production
Washington Nationals enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Colorado Rockies
- • Chase Dollander: Injured 60-Day
- • Jose Quintana: Injured 60-Day
- • Kris Bryant: Injured 60-Day
- • Kyle Freeland: Injured 15-Day
- • Kyle Karros: Injured 7-Day
Washington Nationals
- • Connelly Early: Injured 60-Day
- • DJ Herz: Injured 60-Day
- • Drew Millas: Injured 10-Day
- • James Wood: Injured 10-Day
- • Josiah Gray: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Colorado Rockies
- 1Jake McCarthyLF
- 2Cole CarriggCF
- 3Hunter GoodmanC
- 4TJ Rumfield1B
- 5Willi Castro3B
- 6Ezequiel TovarSS
- 7Mickey MoniakDH
- 8Jordan BeckRF
- 9Ryan Ritter2B
Washington Nationals
- 1CJ AbramsDH
- 2Andrés Chaparro1B
- 3Dylan CrewsCF
- 4Daylen LileRF
- 5Brady House3B
- 6Jorbit Vivas2B
- 7Harry FordC
- 8Keibert RuizPH
- 9José TenaLF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model