Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals
Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 1:05 PM · Nationals Park
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Colorado Rockies
Alternative: Over 9 runs
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 10.8
- Reference line
- 9.0
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 5.7
- First 5 line
- 5.0
- Weather
- Cloudy
- Temperature
- 86°F
- Wind
- 9 mph, Out To LF
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Washington Nationals.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Colorado Rockies.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Washington Nationals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (5.82).
Offensive production
Washington Nationals enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Colorado Rockies has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Cloudy, wind 9 mph, Out To LF.
Availability
Received injury reports
Colorado Rockies
- • Chase Dollander: Injured 60-Day
- • Jose Quintana: Injured 60-Day
- • Kris Bryant: Injured 60-Day
- • Kyle Freeland: Injured 15-Day
- • Kyle Karros: Injured 7-Day
Washington Nationals
- • Connelly Early: Injured 60-Day
- • DJ Herz: Injured 60-Day
- • Drew Millas: Injured 10-Day
- • James Wood: Injured 10-Day
- • Josiah Gray: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Colorado Rockies
- 1Jake McCarthyDH
- 2Cole CarriggCF
- 3Willi Castro3B
- 4TJ Rumfield1B
- 5Connor Norby2B
- 6Troy JohnstonRF
- 7Brett SullivanC
- 8Zac VeenLF
- 9Ezequiel TovarSS
Washington Nationals
- 1CJ AbramsDH
- 2Dylan CrewsRF
- 3Andrés Chaparro1B
- 4Daylen LileLF
- 5Brady House3B
- 6Keibert RuizC
- 7Jacob YoungCF
- 8Jorbit Vivas2B
- 9Nasim NuñezSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model