New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM · Tropicana Field
Main prediction
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: New York Mets
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
54.5%
Observed odds
-124
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.2
- Reference line
- 8.0
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 4.3
- First 5 line
- 4.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Mets.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Mets.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Mets.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
New York Mets has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (4.55).
Offensive production
Tampa Bay Rays enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Tampa Bay Rays has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
New York Mets
- • Cionel Pérez: Injured 15-Day
- • Devin Williams: Injured 15-Day
- • Jorge Polanco: Injured 60-Day
- • Justin Hagenman: Injured 60-Day
- • Reed Garrett: Injured 60-Day
Tampa Bay Rays
- • Ben Williamson: Injured 10-Day
- • Cole Sulser: Injured 15-Day
- • Edwin Uceta: Injured 60-Day
- • Gavin Lux: Injured 60-Day
- • Griffin Jax: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
New York Mets
- 1Francisco LindorSS
- 2Bo Bichette3B
- 3Carson BengeRF
- 4Mark VientosDH
- 5Jared Young1B
- 6Cristian PacheLF
- 7Marcus Semien2B
- 8A.J. EwingCF
- 9Luis TorrensC
Tampa Bay Rays
- 1Yandy DíazDH
- 2Jonathan Aranda1B
- 3Junior Caminero3B
- 4Kenny PiperC
- 5Chandler SimpsonLF
- 6Cedric MullinsCF
- 7Jonny DeLucaRF
- 8Richie Palacios2B
- 9Taylor WallsSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model