Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 2:15 PM · Busch Stadium
Main prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.4
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.5
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Partly Cloudy
- Temperature
- 92°F
- Wind
- 10 mph, Out To LF
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Pittsburgh Pirates has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.59).
Offensive production
Pittsburgh Pirates enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Pittsburgh Pirates has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
High heat
92°F: warmer air generally provides a small boost to offense.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
- • Endy Rodríguez: Injured 10-Day
- • Konnor Griffin: Injured 60-Day
- • Mitch Keller: Injured 60-Day
- • Ryan O'Hearn: Injured 10-Day
St. Louis Cardinals
- • Andre Pallante: Injured 15-Day
- • Blaze Jordan: Injured 10-Day
- • Everson Pereira: Injured 10-Day
- • Hunter Dobbins: Injured 15-Day
- • JJ Wetherholt: Injured 10-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 1Jared TrioloSS
- 2Oneil CruzDH
- 3Bryan ReynoldsLF
- 4Rafael Flores Jr.C
- 5Brandon Lowe2B
- 6Esmerlyn ValdezRF
- 7Jake MangumCF
- 8Spencer Horwitz1B
- 9Nick Yorke3B
St. Louis Cardinals
- 1Bryan TorresLF
- 2Iván HerreraC
- 3Alec Burleson1B
- 4Jordan WalkerRF
- 5Nolan GormanDH
- 6José Fermín2B
- 7Nathan ChurchCF
- 8Ramón Urías3B
- 9Thomas SaggeseSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model