Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM · Busch Stadium
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Alternative: Under 5.5 ponches de Kyle Leahy
Model confidence
61.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.9
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.2
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Partly Cloudy
- Temperature
- 88°F
- Wind
- 7 mph, Out To LF
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
St. Louis Cardinals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.13).
Offensive production
Pittsburgh Pirates enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Partly Cloudy, wind 7 mph, Out To LF.
Availability
Received injury reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
- • Endy Rodríguez: Injured 10-Day
- • Konnor Griffin: Injured 60-Day
- • Mitch Keller: Injured 60-Day
- • Ryan O'Hearn: Injured 10-Day
St. Louis Cardinals
- • Andre Pallante: Injured 15-Day
- • Blaze Jordan: Injured 10-Day
- • Everson Pereira: Injured 10-Day
- • Hunter Dobbins: Injured 15-Day
- • Masyn Winn: Injured 10-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 1Spencer Horwitz1B
- 2Brandon Lowe2B
- 3Bryan ReynoldsLF
- 4Nick GonzalesDH
- 5Oneil CruzCF
- 6Jake MangumRF
- 7Rafael Flores Jr.C
- 8Jacob GonzalezSS
- 9Jared Triolo3B
St. Louis Cardinals
- 1JJ WetherholtSS
- 2Iván HerreraDH
- 3Alec Burleson1B
- 4Jordan WalkerRF
- 5Nathan ChurchCF
- 6José Fermín2B
- 7Nolan Gorman3B
- 8Joshua BáezLF
- 9Jimmy CrooksC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model