Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 7:45 PM · Busch Stadium
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Michael McGreevy
Model confidence
62.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.5
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.5
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Baltimore Orioles.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to St. Louis Cardinals.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Baltimore Orioles.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Baltimore Orioles.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Baltimore Orioles.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
St. Louis Cardinals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.54).
Offensive production
Baltimore Orioles enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Baltimore Orioles has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Baltimore Orioles
- • Blaze Alexander: Injured 10-Day
- • Colin Selby: Injured 60-Day
- • Félix Bautista: Injured 60-Day
- • Jordan Westburg: Injured 60-Day
- • Keegan Akin: Injured 60-Day
St. Louis Cardinals
- • Andre Pallante: Injured 15-Day
- • Everson Pereira: Injured 10-Day
- • Hunter Dobbins: Injured 15-Day
- • Masyn Winn: Injured 10-Day
- • Max Rajcic: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Baltimore Orioles
- 1Jackson Holliday2B
- 2Carlos NarváezC
- 3Gunnar HendersonSS
- 4Coby MayoDH
- 5Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
- 6Samuel Basallo1B
- 7Christian FranklinCF
- 8Dylan BeaversLF
- 9Leody TaverasRF
St. Louis Cardinals
- 1Blaze Jordan3B
- 2Iván Herrera1B
- 3Jimmy CrooksC
- 4Bryan TorresLF
- 5Joshua BáezRF
- 6Nolan GormanDH
- 7Ramón Urías2B
- 8Nathan ChurchCF
- 9José FermínSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model