Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM · Petco Park
Main prediction
Under 4.5 ponches de Randy Vásquez
Alternative: San Diego Padres Moneyline
Model confidence
61.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.0
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 3.7
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
San Diego Padres has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (4.19).
Offensive production
Pittsburgh Pirates enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
- • Endy Rodríguez: Injured 10-Day
- • Konnor Griffin: Injured 60-Day
- • Mitch Keller: Injured 60-Day
- • Ryan O'Hearn: Injured 10-Day
San Diego Padres
- • Bryan Hoeing: Injured 60-Day
- • Jason Adam: Injured 60-Day
- • Joe Musgrove: Injured 60-Day
- • Lucas Giolito: Injured 60-Day
- • Miguel Andujar: Injured 10-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 1Spencer Horwitz1B
- 2Brandon LoweDH
- 3Bryan ReynoldsLF
- 4Nick Gonzales2B
- 5Oneil CruzCF
- 6Billy CookRF
- 7Jacob GonzalezSS
- 8Jared Triolo3B
- 9Rafael Flores Jr.C
San Diego Padres
- 1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
- 2Jake Cronenworth2B
- 3Manny Machado3B
- 4Jase BowenPR
- 5Jackson MerrillCF
- 6Luis RengifoDH
- 7Luis CampusanoC
- 8Xander BogaertsSS
- 9Austin HaysLF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model