San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM · PNC Park
Main prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
60.7%
Observed odds
-161
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.5
- Reference line
- 7.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 4.0
- First 5 line
- 4.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Francisco Giants.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Francisco Giants.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Pittsburgh Pirates.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
San Francisco Giants has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.72).
Offensive production
Pittsburgh Pirates enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
San Francisco Giants
- • Adrian Houser: Injured 15-Day
- • Carson Whisenhunt: Injured 60-Day
- • Casey Schmitt: Injured 60-Day
- • Daniel Susac: Injured 60-Day
- • Harrison Bader: Injured 60-Day
Pittsburgh Pirates
- • Endy Rodríguez: Injured 10-Day
- • Konnor Griffin: Injured 60-Day
- • Mitch Keller: Injured 60-Day
- • Ryan O'Hearn: Injured 10-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
San Francisco Giants
- 1Turner HillLF
- 2Rafael DeversDH
- 3Bryce Eldridge1B
- 4Jonah CoxCF
- 5Jung Hoo LeeRF
- 6Osleivis Basabe2B
- 7Andrew KniznerC
- 8Shay Whitcomb3B
- 9Christian KossSS
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 1Jared TrioloSS
- 2Oneil CruzDH
- 3Bryan ReynoldsLF
- 4Rafael Flores Jr.C
- 5Brandon Lowe2B
- 6Billy CookCF
- 7Jake MangumRF
- 8Spencer Horwitz1B
- 9Nick Yorke3B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model