Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 7:15 PM · Yankee Stadium
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: New York Yankees
Alternative: New York Yankees Moneyline
Model confidence
66.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
56%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.7
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.6
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. There is not enough data to compare.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. There is not enough data to compare.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Offensive production
Boston Red Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Unconfirmed starter
A change in the probable starter can affect the pick and projected total.
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Boston Red Sox
- • Curtis Mead: Injured 10-Day
- • Garrett Crochet: Injured 60-Day
- • Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Oviedo: Injured 60-Day
- • Justin Slaten: Injured 15-Day
New York Yankees
- • Aaron Judge: Injured 60-Day
- • Clarke Schmidt: Injured 60-Day
- • Fernando Cruz: Injured 15-Day
- • Giancarlo Stanton: Injured 60-Day
- • Kervin Castro: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Boston Red Sox
- 1Nick Sogard2B
- 2Ceddanne RafaelaCF
- 3Wilyer AbreuRF
- 4Willson Contreras1B
- 5Adley RutschmanC
- 6Caleb Durbin3B
- 7Jahmai JonesDH
- 8Eli WhiteLF
- 9Andruw MonasterioSS
New York Yankees
- 1Paul Goldschmidt1B
- 2Ben RiceDH
- 3Cody BellingerLF
- 4Spencer JonesRF
- 5Trent GrishamCF
- 6George Lombard Jr.SS
- 7Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
- 8José Caballero3B
- 9Austin WellsC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Starters, Starter statistics, Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model