Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 1:35 PM · Yankee Stadium
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Boston Red Sox
Alternative: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.6
- Reference line
- 9.0
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.6
- First 5 line
- 5.0
- Weather
- Partly Cloudy
- Temperature
- 80°F
- Wind
- 9 mph, Out To LF
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Boston Red Sox has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.35).
Offensive production
Boston Red Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Partly Cloudy, wind 9 mph, Out To LF.
Availability
Received injury reports
Boston Red Sox
- • Curtis Mead: Injured 10-Day
- • Garrett Crochet: Injured 60-Day
- • Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Oviedo: Injured 60-Day
- • Justin Slaten: Injured 15-Day
New York Yankees
- • Aaron Judge: Injured 60-Day
- • Clarke Schmidt: Injured 60-Day
- • Fernando Cruz: Injured 15-Day
- • Giancarlo Stanton: Injured 60-Day
- • Kervin Castro: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Boston Red Sox
- 1Roman AnthonyDH
- 2Ceddanne RafaelaCF
- 3Wilyer AbreuRF
- 4Willson Contreras1B
- 5Adley RutschmanC
- 6Caleb Durbin3B
- 7Jarren DuranLF
- 8Trevor StorySS
- 9Nick Sogard2B
New York Yankees
- 1Paul Goldschmidt1B
- 2Cody BellingerLF
- 3Heliot RamosRF
- 4Luis García Jr.DH
- 5Amed Rosario3B
- 6Trent GrishamCF
- 7José CaballeroSS
- 8Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
- 9Ali SánchezC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model