Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 7:15 PM · Yankee Stadium
Main prediction
New York Yankees Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: New York Yankees
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.7
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.6
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
New York Yankees has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (2.16).
Offensive production
Boston Red Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Boston Red Sox
- • Curtis Mead: Injured 10-Day
- • Garrett Crochet: Injured 60-Day
- • Garrett Whitlock: Injured 15-Day
- • Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Oviedo: Injured 60-Day
New York Yankees
- • Aaron Judge: Injured 60-Day
- • Clarke Schmidt: Injured 60-Day
- • Fernando Cruz: Injured 15-Day
- • Giancarlo Stanton: Injured 60-Day
- • Kervin Castro: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Boston Red Sox
- 1Nick Sogard1B
- 2Ceddanne RafaelaCF
- 3Wilyer AbreuRF
- 4Caleb Durbin3B
- 5Mickey GasperDH
- 6Andruw MonasterioSS
- 7Eli WhitePH
- 8Jahmai JonesPH
- 9Connor WongC
New York Yankees
- 1Trent GrishamCF
- 2Ben RiceDH
- 3Luis García Jr.1B
- 4Cody BellingerLF
- 5George Lombard Jr.SS
- 6Heliot RamosPH
- 7Amed RosarioPH
- 8Austin WellsC
- 9José Caballero3B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model