Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 7:05 PM · Yankee Stadium
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Houston Astros
Alternative: New York Yankees Moneyline
Model confidence
64.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.0
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.8
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to New York Yankees.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Houston Astros has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.68).
Offensive production
Houston Astros enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
New York Yankees has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Houston Astros
- • Brandon Walter: Injured 60-Day
- • Brice Matthews: Injured 60-Day
- • Carlos Correa: Injured 60-Day
- • Mike Burrows: Injured 15-Day
New York Yankees
- • Aaron Judge: Injured 60-Day
- • Clarke Schmidt: Injured 60-Day
- • Giancarlo Stanton: Injured 60-Day
- • Kervin Castro: Injured 15-Day
- • Max Fried: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Houston Astros
- 1Jeremy PeñaSS
- 2Yordan AlvarezDH
- 3Isaac Paredes3B
- 4Nick Allen2B
- 5Daulton VarshoCF
- 6Christian Walker1B
- 7Cam SmithRF
- 8Yainer DiazC
- 9Nelson VelázquezLF
New York Yankees
- 1Trent GrishamCF
- 2Ben RiceDH
- 3Luis García Jr.1B
- 4Cody BellingerLF
- 5George Lombard Jr.SS
- 6Spencer JonesRF
- 7Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
- 8Austin WellsC
- 9José Caballero3B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model