Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 7:40 PM · Target Field
Main prediction
Minnesota Twins Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Detroit Tigers
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
50.6%
Observed odds
-106
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.2
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 3.8
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Detroit Tigers.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Detroit Tigers.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Detroit Tigers.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Detroit Tigers has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (1.86).
Offensive production
Minnesota Twins enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Minnesota Twins has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Detroit Tigers
- • Bailey Horn: Injured 60-Day
- • Brant Hurter: Injured 60-Day
- • Burch Smith: Injured 60-Day
- • Jack Flaherty: Injured 15-Day
- • Justin Verlander: Injured 60-Day
Minnesota Twins
- • Anthony Banda: Injured 60-Day
- • Austin Martin: Injured 10-Day
- • Byron Buxton: Injured 10-Day
- • Cole Sands: Injured 60-Day
- • David Festa: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Detroit Tigers
- 1Ben MalgeriRF
- 2Colt Keith3B
- 3John PeckSS
- 4Dillon DinglerC
- 5Brett CallahanLF
- 6Zach McKinstryP
- 7Eduardo Valencia1B
- 8Max ClarkCF
- 9Hao-Yu Lee2B
Minnesota Twins
- 1Gabriel GonzalezRF
- 2Brooks Lee3B
- 3Ryan Kreidler2B
- 4Alex JacksonC
- 5Josh BellDH
- 6Trevor LarnachLF
- 7Royce Lewis1B
- 8Kaelen CulpepperSS
- 9Walker JenkinsCF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model