Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 8:10 PM · Target Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Minnesota Twins
Alternative: Over 8.5 runs
Model confidence
64.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.5
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 5.0
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Minnesota Twins.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Chicago White Sox has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (5.19).
Offensive production
Chicago White Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Chicago White Sox has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Chicago White Sox
- • Brooks Baldwin: Injured 60-Day
- • Chris Murphy: Injured 15-Day
- • Davis Martin: Injured 15-Day
- • Drew Thorpe: Injured 60-Day
- • Huascar Brazobán: Injured 15-Day
Minnesota Twins
- • Anthony Banda: Injured 60-Day
- • Austin Martin: Injured 10-Day
- • Cole Sands: Injured 60-Day
- • David Festa: Injured 60-Day
- • Joe Ryan: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Chicago White Sox
- 1Miguel Vargas3B
- 2Munetaka Murakami1B
- 3Sam AntonacciDH
- 4Chase Meidroth2B
- 5Braden MontgomeryRF
- 6Brenton DoyleCF
- 7Jake RogersC
- 8Tristan PetersLF
- 9Luisangel AcuñaSS
Minnesota Twins
- 1Luke KeaschallCF
- 2Brooks Lee3B
- 3Josh BellDH
- 4Ryan JeffersC
- 5Kody Clemens2B
- 6Royce Lewis1B
- 7Trevor LarnachLF
- 8Kaelen CulpepperSS
- 9Alan RodenRF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model