Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 7:40 PM · Kauffman Stadium
Main prediction
Kansas City Royals Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Kansas City Royals
Model confidence
67.0%
Market probability
52.3%
Observed odds
-114
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.9
- Reference line
- 10.0
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 4.2
- First 5 line
- 5.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Miami Marlins.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Kansas City Royals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (1.92).
Offensive production
Miami Marlins enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Kansas City Royals has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Miami Marlins
- • Adam Mazur: Injured 60-Day
- • Andrew Nardi: Injured 60-Day
- • Anthony Bender: Injured 15-Day
- • Max Meyer: Injured 15-Day
- • Pete Fairbanks: Injured 15-Day
Kansas City Royals
- • Alec Marsh: Injured 60-Day
- • Beck Way: Injured 15-Day
- • Carlos Estévez: Injured 60-Day
- • Cole Ragans: Injured 60-Day
- • Connor Seabold: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Miami Marlins
- 1Heriberto HernándezLF
- 2Otto LopezSS
- 3Griffin ConineDH
- 4Javier Sanoja2B
- 5Kyle Stowers1B
- 6Leo Jiménez3B
- 7Jakob MarseeCF
- 8Esteury RuizRF
- 9Brian NavarretoC
Kansas City Royals
- 1Carter JensenC
- 2Matthew LugoLF
- 3Josh RojasSS
- 4Salvador PerezDH
- 5Vinnie Pasquantino1B
- 6Nick Loftin3B
- 7John RaveRF
- 8Isaac Collins2B
- 9Kyle IsbelCF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model