Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 8:10 PM · Daikin Park
Main prediction
Chicago White Sox Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Chicago White Sox
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
42.8%
Observed odds
+126
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.7
- Reference line
- 7.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 5.1
- First 5 line
- 4.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Chicago White Sox has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.32).
Offensive production
Chicago White Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Chicago White Sox
- • Brooks Baldwin: Injured 60-Day
- • Chris Murphy: Injured 15-Day
- • Davis Martin: Injured 15-Day
- • Drew Thorpe: Injured 60-Day
- • Huascar Brazobán: Injured 15-Day
Houston Astros
- • Brandon Walter: Injured 60-Day
- • Brice Matthews: Injured 60-Day
- • Carlos Correa: Injured 60-Day
- • Mike Burrows: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Chicago White Sox
- 1Sam AntonacciLF
- 2Munetaka Murakami1B
- 3Miguel Vargas3B
- 4Randal GrichukDH
- 5Braden MontgomeryRF
- 6Colson MontgomerySS
- 7Chase Meidroth2B
- 8Brenton DoyleCF
- 9Jake RogersC
Houston Astros
- 1Jeremy PeñaSS
- 2Yordan AlvarezDH
- 3Isaac Paredes3B
- 4Christian Walker1B
- 5Daulton VarshoCF
- 6Cam SmithRF
- 7Taylor TrammellLF
- 8Nick Allen2B
- 9Christian VázquezC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model