Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros
Monday, August 31, 2026 at 8:10 PM · Daikin Park
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Houston Astros
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Anthony Kay
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.9
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.7
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Houston Astros.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago White Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Houston Astros has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.66).
Offensive production
Chicago White Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Chicago White Sox has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
9 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Chicago White Sox
- • Brooks Baldwin: Injured 60-Day
- • Chris Murphy: Injured 15-Day
- • Davis Martin: Injured 15-Day
- • Drew Thorpe: Injured 60-Day
- • Huascar Brazobán: Injured 15-Day
Houston Astros
- • Brandon Walter: Injured 60-Day
- • Brice Matthews: Injured 60-Day
- • Carlos Correa: Injured 60-Day
- • Mike Burrows: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Chicago White Sox
- 1Sam Antonacci2B
- 2Munetaka Murakami1B
- 3Miguel Vargas3B
- 4Andrew BenintendiDH
- 5Braden MontgomeryRF
- 6Colson MontgomerySS
- 7Tristan PetersLF
- 8Brenton DoyleCF
- 9Drew RomoC
Houston Astros
- 1Jeremy PeñaSS
- 2Nelson VelázquezLF
- 3Isaac ParedesDH
- 4Jose Altuve2B
- 5Christian Walker1B
- 6Daulton VarshoCF
- 7Yainer DiazC
- 8Taylor TrammellRF
- 9Nick Allen3B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model