Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 1:10 PM · Comerica Park
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Detroit Tigers
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Troy Melton
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.8
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.1
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Partly Cloudy
- Temperature
- 75°F
- Wind
- 14 mph, R To L
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Detroit Tigers.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Detroit Tigers.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Detroit Tigers has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (1.70).
Offensive production
Tampa Bay Rays enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Tampa Bay Rays has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Partly Cloudy, wind 14 mph, R To L.
Availability
Received injury reports
Tampa Bay Rays
- • Ben Williamson: Injured 10-Day
- • Cole Sulser: Injured 15-Day
- • Edwin Uceta: Injured 60-Day
- • Gavin Lux: Injured 60-Day
- • Griffin Jax: Injured 15-Day
Detroit Tigers
- • Bailey Horn: Injured 60-Day
- • Brant Hurter: Injured 60-Day
- • Burch Smith: Injured 60-Day
- • Jack Flaherty: Injured 15-Day
- • Justin Verlander: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Tampa Bay Rays
- 1Yandy DíazDH
- 2Jonathan Aranda1B
- 3Junior Caminero3B
- 4Liam HicksC
- 5Chandler SimpsonLF
- 6Jonny DeLucaRF
- 7Richie Palacios2B
- 8Jorge MateoSS
- 9Cedric MullinsCF
Detroit Tigers
- 1Brett CallahanLF
- 2Kevin McGonigleSS
- 3Gleyber Torres2B
- 4Colt KeithDH
- 5Dillon DinglerC
- 6Zach McKinstryRF
- 7Spencer Torkelson1B
- 8Max ClarkCF
- 9Hao-Yu Lee3B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model