Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM · Progressive Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Alternative: Under 6.5 ponches de Gavin Williams
Model confidence
65.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.3
- Reference line
- 7.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 3.9
- First 5 line
- 4.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Toronto Blue Jays.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Toronto Blue Jays.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Toronto Blue Jays.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Toronto Blue Jays.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Toronto Blue Jays.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Toronto Blue Jays has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (2.92).
Offensive production
Toronto Blue Jays enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Cleveland Guardians has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
8 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Toronto Blue Jays
- • Addison Barger: Injured 60-Day
- • Anthony Santander: Injured 60-Day
- • Bowden Francis: Injured 60-Day
- • Cody Ponce: Injured 60-Day
- • Jake Bloss: Injured 60-Day
Cleveland Guardians
- • Rhys Hoskins: Injured 10-Day
- • Shawn Armstrong: Injured 60-Day
- • Slade Cecconi: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Toronto Blue Jays
- 1Brett BatemanCF
- 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
- 3Alejandro KirkC
- 4George SpringerDH
- 5Nathan LukesRF
- 6Kazuma Okamoto3B
- 7Andrés GiménezSS
- 8Ernie Clement2B
- 9Myles StrawLF
Cleveland Guardians
- 1David FryLF
- 2Petey HalpinCF
- 3José RamírezDH
- 4Jo AdellRF
- 5Nathaniel Lowe1B
- 6Travis Bazzana2B
- 7Angel Genao3B
- 8Austin HedgesC
- 9Brayan RocchioSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model