Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 7:10 PM · Progressive Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Kansas City Royals
Alternative: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.2
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.3
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Kansas City Royals.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Kansas City Royals has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.49).
Offensive production
Kansas City Royals enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Kansas City Royals has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
8 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Kansas City Royals
- • Alec Marsh: Injured 60-Day
- • Beck Way: Injured 15-Day
- • Carlos Estévez: Injured 60-Day
- • Cole Ragans: Injured 60-Day
- • Connor Seabold: Injured 60-Day
Cleveland Guardians
- • Rhys Hoskins: Injured 10-Day
- • Shawn Armstrong: Injured 60-Day
- • Slade Cecconi: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Kansas City Royals
- 1Luke MaileC
- 2Tyler TolbertSS
- 3Jac CaglianoneRF
- 4Vinnie Pasquantino1B
- 5Salvador PerezDH
- 6Isaac Collins2B
- 7John RaveCF
- 8Josh Rojas3B
- 9Matthew LugoLF
Cleveland Guardians
- 1Steven KwanLF
- 2Travis Bazzana2B
- 3José RamírezDH
- 4Patrick BaileyC
- 5Nathaniel Lowe1B
- 6Angel MartínezRF
- 7Angel Genao3B
- 8Petey HalpinCF
- 9Brayan RocchioSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model