San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM · Great American Ball Park
Main prediction
San Diego Padres Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: San Diego Padres
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
91.2%
Observed odds
-1660
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.4
- Reference line
- 7.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 5.0
- First 5 line
- 4.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cincinnati Reds.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cincinnati Reds.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to San Diego Padres.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
San Diego Padres has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (4.02).
Offensive production
Cincinnati Reds enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
San Diego Padres has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
San Diego Padres
- • Bryan Hoeing: Injured 60-Day
- • Gavin Sheets: Injured 10-Day
- • Jason Adam: Injured 60-Day
- • Jeremiah Estrada: Injured 15-Day
- • Joe Musgrove: Injured 60-Day
Cincinnati Reds
- • Blake Dunn: Injured 60-Day
- • Graham Ashcraft: Injured 60-Day
- • Hunter Greene: Injured 60-Day
- • Ke'Bryan Hayes: Injured 10-Day
- • Michael Toglia: Injured 10-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
San Diego Padres
- 1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
- 2Jake Cronenworth2B
- 3Manny Machado3B
- 4Ty France1B
- 5Jackson MerrillCF
- 6Xander BogaertsDH
- 7Dustin HarrisLF
- 8Luis CampusanoC
- 9Sung-Mun SongSS
Cincinnati Reds
- 1Héctor RodríguezRF
- 2Elly De La CruzDH
- 3Sal Stewart1B
- 4JJ BledayLF
- 5Tyler StephensonC
- 6Eugenio Suárez3B
- 7Matt McLainSS
- 8Dane MyersPH
- 9Edwin Arroyo2B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model