Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 7:40 PM · Wrigley Field
Main prediction
Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Alternative: Under 13.5 runs
Model confidence
64.0%
Market probability
92.5%
Observed odds
-2100
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 10.9
- Reference line
- 13.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 5.8
- First 5 line
- 6.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Chicago Cubs has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.99).
Offensive production
Chicago Cubs enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Milwaukee Brewers has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Milwaukee Brewers
- • Angel Zerpa: Injured 60-Day
- • Brandon Woodruff: Injured 60-Day
- • Brian Fitzpatrick: Injured 60-Day
- • Bryse Wilson: Injured 15-Day
- • JoJo Romero: Injured 15-Day
Chicago Cubs
- • Ben Brown: Injured 60-Day
- • Cade Horton: Injured 60-Day
- • Dansby Swanson: Injured 10-Day
- • Edward Cabrera: Injured 15-Day
- • Gavin Hollowell: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Milwaukee Brewers
- 1Brice Turang2B
- 2Jackson ChourioLF
- 3Andrew VaughnP
- 4Gary SánchezC
- 5Joey Ortiz1B
- 6Luis LaraCF
- 7Sal FrelickRF
- 8David Hamilton3B
- 9Cooper PrattSS
Chicago Cubs
- 1Michael ConfortoLF
- 2Seiya SuzukiRF
- 3Alex Bregman3B
- 4Tyrone TaylorCF
- 5Gabriel AriasSS
- 6Michael Busch1B
- 7Carson KellyC
- 8Miguel AmayaDH
- 9Matt Shaw2B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model