Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Monday, August 31, 2026 at 7:40 PM · Wrigley Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Clay Holmes
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.2
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.9
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Milwaukee Brewers.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Chicago Cubs has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (2.26).
Offensive production
Chicago Cubs enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Milwaukee Brewers has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Milwaukee Brewers
- • Abner Uribe: Injured 15-Day
- • Angel Zerpa: Injured 60-Day
- • Brandon Woodruff: Injured 60-Day
- • Brian Fitzpatrick: Injured 60-Day
- • JoJo Romero: Injured 15-Day
Chicago Cubs
- • Ben Brown: Injured 60-Day
- • Cade Horton: Injured 60-Day
- • Dansby Swanson: Injured 10-Day
- • Edward Cabrera: Injured 15-Day
- • Gavin Hollowell: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Milwaukee Brewers
- 1Brice Turang2B
- 2Garrett MitchellCF
- 3Jake Bauers1B
- 4Jackson ChourioLF
- 5Christian YelichDH
- 6Gary SánchezC
- 7Luis LaraRF
- 8Andrew Vaughn3B
- 9Joey OrtizSS
Chicago Cubs
- 1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
- 2Seiya SuzukiRF
- 3Michael Busch1B
- 4Alex Bregman3B
- 5Ian HappLF
- 6Nico HoernerSS
- 7Pedro Ramírez2B
- 8Tyrone TaylorDH
- 9Matt ShawPH
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model