Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Friday, August 28, 2026 at 2:20 PM · Wrigley Field
Main prediction
Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Chicago Cubs
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 10.0
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 5.3
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Sunny
- Temperature
- 77°F
- Wind
- 6 mph, R To L
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cincinnati Reds.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cincinnati Reds.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cincinnati Reds.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Cincinnati Reds has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (5.13).
Offensive production
Chicago Cubs enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Ballpark conditions
Sunny, wind 6 mph, R To L.
Availability
Received injury reports
Cincinnati Reds
- • Blake Dunn: Injured 60-Day
- • Brandon Williamson: Injured 60-Day
- • Graham Ashcraft: Injured 60-Day
- • Hunter Greene: Injured 60-Day
- • Michael Toglia: Injured 10-Day
Chicago Cubs
- • Ben Brown: Injured 60-Day
- • Cade Horton: Injured 60-Day
- • Dansby Swanson: Injured 10-Day
- • Edward Cabrera: Injured 15-Day
- • Gavin Hollowell: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Confirmed batting orders
Published directly by MLB Gameday.
Cincinnati Reds
- 1Dane MyersCF
- 2Elly De La CruzSS
- 3Sal Stewart1B
- 4Tyler StephensonDH
- 5Eugenio Suárez3B
- 6JJ BledayLF
- 7Matt McLain2B
- 8Jose TrevinoC
- 9Héctor RodríguezRF
Chicago Cubs
- 1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
- 2Seiya SuzukiRF
- 3Michael Busch1B
- 4Alex Bregman3B
- 5Ian HappLF
- 6Nico HoernerSS
- 7Pedro Ramírez2B
- 8Michael ConfortoDH
- 9Carson KellyC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Weather, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model