Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 6:45 PM · Fenway Park
Main prediction
Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Alternative: Under 11.5 runs
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
81.9%
Observed odds
-552
Data available
89%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 8.7
- Reference line
- 11.5
- Line source
- Market
- First 5 projection
- 4.6
- First 5 line
- 6.0
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- DraftKings
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Seattle Mariners.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Seattle Mariners.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Seattle Mariners has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (4.36).
Offensive production
Boston Red Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Boston Red Sox has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Possible bullpen game
Inning distribution is less predictable than in a matchup with established starters.
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Seattle Mariners
- • Brendan Donovan: Injured 7-Day
- • Cole Wilcox: Injured 15-Day
- • Colt Emerson: Injured 60-Day
- • Emerson Hancock: Injured 15-Day
- • Logan Evans: Injured 60-Day
Boston Red Sox
- • Curtis Mead: Injured 10-Day
- • Eduardo Rivera: Injured 60-Day
- • Garrett Crochet: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Oviedo: Injured 60-Day
- • Justin Slaten: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Seattle Mariners
- 1Randy ArozarenaLF
- 2Brock RoddenDH
- 3Julio RodríguezCF
- 4Cal RaleighC
- 5Josh Naylor1B
- 6Victor RoblesRF
- 7Cole Young2B
- 8Weston Wilson3B
- 9J.P. CrawfordSS
Boston Red Sox
- 1Roman AnthonyDH
- 2Mickey Gasper1B
- 3Ceddanne RafaelaCF
- 4Eli WhitePR
- 5Nick Sogard2B
- 6Caleb Durbin3B
- 7Jarren DuranLF
- 8Trevor StorySS
- 9Connor WongC
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Odds, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Cuotas: DraftKings · Athletiq prediction model