Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox
Monday, August 31, 2026 at 6:45 PM · Fenway Park
Main prediction
Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Alternative: First 5 innings winner: Boston Red Sox
Model confidence
69.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.9
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.2
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Boston Red Sox.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Boston Red Sox has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (3.09).
Offensive production
Boston Red Sox enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Boston Red Sox has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Seattle Mariners
- • Brendan Donovan: Injured 7-Day
- • Cole Wilcox: Injured 15-Day
- • Colt Emerson: Injured 10-Day
- • Cooper Criswell: Injured 60-Day
- • Emerson Hancock: Injured 15-Day
Boston Red Sox
- • Curtis Mead: Injured 10-Day
- • Garrett Crochet: Injured 60-Day
- • Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Oviedo: Injured 60-Day
- • Justin Slaten: Injured 15-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Seattle Mariners
- 1Randy ArozarenaLF
- 2Dominic CanzoneDH
- 3Julio RodríguezCF
- 4Cal RaleighC
- 5Josh Naylor1B
- 6Taylor WardRF
- 7Cole Young2B
- 8J.P. CrawfordSS
- 9Patrick Wisdom3B
Boston Red Sox
- 1Eli White2B
- 2Ceddanne RafaelaCF
- 3Wilyer AbreuRF
- 4Andruw MonasterioP
- 5Adley RutschmanC
- 6Caleb Durbin3B
- 7Jarren DuranLF
- 8Trevor StorySS
- 9Nick Sogard1B
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model