Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 3:40 PM · Chase Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Eduardo Rodriguez
Model confidence
64.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 10.0
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 5.3
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Chicago Cubs.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Arizona Diamondbacks has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (2.61).
Offensive production
Chicago Cubs enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Arizona Diamondbacks has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Chicago Cubs
- • Ben Brown: Injured 60-Day
- • Cade Horton: Injured 60-Day
- • Dansby Swanson: Injured 10-Day
- • Edward Cabrera: Injured 15-Day
- • Gavin Hollowell: Injured 15-Day
Arizona Diamondbacks
- • A.J. Puk: Injured 60-Day
- • Andrew Saalfrank: Injured 60-Day
- • Blake Walston: Injured 60-Day
- • Corbin Burnes: Injured 60-Day
- • Cristian Mena: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Chicago Cubs
- 1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
- 2Seiya SuzukiRF
- 3Michael Busch1B
- 4Alex Bregman3B
- 5Ian HappLF
- 6Nico HoernerSS
- 7Pedro Ramírez2B
- 8Michael ConfortoDH
- 9Miguel AmayaC
Arizona Diamondbacks
- 1Lars NootbaarDH
- 2Corbin CarrollRF
- 3Gabriel MorenoC
- 4Geraldo PerdomoSS
- 5Max KeplerLF
- 6Nolan Arenado3B
- 7Jose FernandezPR
- 8Ildemaro Vargas2B
- 9Ryan WaldschmidtPH
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model