Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, August 31, 2026 at 9:40 PM · Chase Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
Alternative: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
Model confidence
62.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
56%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 9.0
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.8
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. The numerical advantage here belongs to Philadelphia Phillies.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. The numerical advantage here belongs to Philadelphia Phillies.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. There is not enough data to compare.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. There is not enough data to compare.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Philadelphia Phillies.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Philadelphia Phillies.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Offensive production
Philadelphia Phillies enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Recent form
Philadelphia Phillies has more wins over its last ten games.
Risks
Risks before the game
Unconfirmed starter
A change in the probable starter can affect the pick and projected total.
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
10 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Philadelphia Phillies
- • Adolis García: Injured 60-Day
- • Brad Keller: Injured 60-Day
- • Caleb Kilian: Injured 15-Day
- • Felix Reyes: Injured 60-Day
- • Johan Rojas: Injured 60-Day
Arizona Diamondbacks
- • A.J. Puk: Injured 60-Day
- • Andrew Saalfrank: Injured 60-Day
- • Blake Walston: Injured 60-Day
- • Corbin Burnes: Injured 60-Day
- • Cristian Mena: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Philadelphia Phillies
- 1Kyle SchwarberDH
- 2Trea TurnerSS
- 3Justin CrawfordCF
- 4Alec Bohm1B
- 5Luis Arraez2B
- 6Brandon MarshLF
- 7Bryson Stott3B
- 8J.T. RealmutoC
- 9Derek HillRF
Arizona Diamondbacks
- 1Lars NootbaarDH
- 2Corbin CarrollRF
- 3Geraldo PerdomoSS
- 4Nolan Arenado3B
- 5Max KeplerLF
- 6Tim Tawa1B
- 7James McCannC
- 8Ildemaro Vargas2B
- 9Ryan WaldschmidtCF
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Starters, Starter statistics, Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model