Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM · Tropicana Field
Main prediction
First 5 innings winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Alternative: Under 4.5 ponches de Foster Griffin
Model confidence
68.0%
Market probability
Unavailable
Observed odds
Unavailable
Data available
78%
Confidence summarizes the strength of the available signals; it is not a guaranteed probability and is not used to calculate an edge against the market. Market probability appears only when enough odds are available.
Context
- Projected total
- 7.6
- Reference line
- 8.5
- Line source
- Athletiq estimate
- First 5 projection
- 4.0
- First 5 line
- 4.5
- Weather
- Pending
- Temperature
- Pending
- Wind
- Pending
- Reference sportsbook
- Unavailable
Verifiable comparison
The numbers behind the analysis
You do not need to know sabermetrics: each indicator explains what it measures and whether higher or lower is generally better. Color highlights the stronger figure in that comparison; it does not guarantee the result.
Wins and losses accumulated this season. There is not enough data to compare.
Recent record: wins and losses over the last ten games. Both teams are even in this comparison.
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Baserunners allowed per inning. Lower generally indicates better control. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Combines on-base ability and power. Higher is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Tampa Bay Rays.
Measures each offense against pitchers matching today's starter handedness. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Relief-pitcher performance only; a lower figure is generally better. The numerical advantage here belongs to Cleveland Guardians.
Supporting
Factors supporting the pick
Starting-pitcher edge
Tampa Bay Rays has the lower ERA in the projected matchup (2.67).
Offensive production
Tampa Bay Rays enters with the higher season OPS of the two teams.
Risks
Risks before the game
Expected lineup
The model uses the most recent official order, excluding players currently on the IL. It will recalculate when MLB posts today's lineup.
Player availability
5 injury reports should be monitored before first pitch.
Availability
Received injury reports
Cleveland Guardians
No active reports.
Tampa Bay Rays
- • Edwin Uceta: Injured 60-Day
- • Gavin Lux: Injured 60-Day
- • Jacob Melton: Injured 60-Day
- • Jonathan Heasley: Injured 60-Day
- • Ryan Pepiot: Injured 60-Day
MLB lineups
Batting orders pending
This section will update automatically when MLB publishes both lineups.
Cleveland Guardians
- 1Steven KwanLF
- 2José Ramírez3B
- 3Chase DeLauterRF
- 4Jo AdellDH
- 5Nathaniel Lowe1B
- 6Angel Genao2B
- 7Patrick BaileyC
- 8Petey HalpinCF
- 9Brayan RocchioSS
Tampa Bay Rays
- 1Yandy DíazDH
- 2Jonathan Aranda1B
- 3Junior Caminero3B
- 4Victor Mesa Jr.LF
- 5Cedric MullinsCF
- 6Liam HicksC
- 7Jonny DeLucaRF
- 8Richie Palacios2B
- 9Taylor WallsSS
Transparency
Data quality and provenance
Available
Starters, Starter statistics, Recent form, Injuries, Handedness splits, Bullpens, Lineups
Missing
Odds, Weather
Sources
MLB Stats API · MLB Gameday · MLB roster oficial · Athletiq odds cache · Athletiq prediction model